The photovoltaic industry is being increasingly constrained by an invisible rope, the other end of which is connected to glittering silver.

In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has experienced crises such as rising silicon material prices and bottlenecks in quartz crucible supply. Now, it faces a new bottleneck – silver. As of the morning of December 1, 2025, the London spot silver price hit a record high of $57.7 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 90%. This figure is being called a "backstab" for precious metals by the photovoltaic industry.

Almost simultaneously, the global derivatives trading center – the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) – experienced an unexpected outage lasting several hours. Due to the high degree of overlap with the extreme price movements of silver, some market observers linked this technical malfunction to silver volatility, even speculating that the exchange had "pulled the plug" to control risk.

Silver paste, a key material for photovoltaic cells, accounts for approximately 12% of the total cost of modules and over 50% of the non-silicon cost of cells, evolving from an ordinary auxiliary material to a crucial main material affecting industry development.

Silver's Dilemma: The Photovoltaic Industry's New Achilles' Heel

As an electrode material, silver paste is the "circulatory system" ensuring high conductivity, directly affecting the cell's conversion efficiency and output performance.

With the rapid rise of N-type high-efficiency cell technologies (such as TOPCon and HJT), silver consumption has increased rather than decreased. According to a CPIA report, N-type TOPCon cells consume approximately 30% more silver than traditional P-type cells, exacerbating the already severe silver supply situation.

Global silver has been in short supply for several years. A supply-demand gap of approximately 3,660 tons is projected to remain in place by 2025, with photovoltaic silver becoming the core driver of silver demand growth.

"The silver issue has become the 'Achilles' heel' of the photovoltaic industry's journey towards the terawatt era," an industry expert frankly admitted. "If we cannot effectively solve the cost and supply problems of silver paste, the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry will face significant challenges."

Technological Breakthrough: Breaking Free from the "Silver Shackles"

Faced with the pressure of rising silver prices, the photovoltaic manufacturing industry has launched a vigorous "silver reduction revolution."

Process optimization is the first step. Through the promotion and application of technologies such as multi-busbar (MBB) and busbarless (OBB), the industry has successfully reduced unit silver consumption by nearly 80% in the past three years. This is only the prelude to the technological revolution.

More radical material substitution Solutions are emerging in rapid succession:

Silver-coated copper paste, currently the most mature industrialized approach, significantly reduces raw material costs by coating copper powder with a silver layer, while remaining largely compatible with existing production lines. Leading companies like Tongwei have used this technology to reduce silver consumption in HJT batteries by nearly 80% within three years.

Electroplating copper technology is considered a potentially huge "ultimate solution," achieving complete "silver-free" production. This technology utilizes copper grid lines electroplated onto silicon wafers, resulting in excellent conductivity. However, its bottlenecks lie in the huge equipment investment, complex process flow, and high yield challenges. Aiko Solar has applied silver-free pure copper electrode technology to its ABC batteries; its principle... Similar to copper electroplating, both aim to achieve "silver-free" production.

High-copper paste is an attempt to achieve a breakthrough in pure copper paste. It has the lowest raw material cost, but the core technical challenge lies in solving the oxidation problem of copper during high-temperature sintering. Some analysts indicate that this technology is expected to reach a critical point of mass production adoption in 2025-2026.

Pure copper paste aims to completely replace silver with copper, representing a disruptive "silver-free" solution. Risen Energy has achieved a key breakthrough in its heterojunction Fuxi production line testing, significantly reducing silver consumption from 6 mg/W to 0.5 mg/W using this technology. The unique low-temperature process and TCO conductive film of heterojunction cells... This layer eliminates the need for a complex "seed layer" in copper paste application, significantly simplifying the process, reducing costs, and laying a solid foundation for ultimate silver-free production.

Industry Transformation: Reshaping the Photovoltaic Industry Chain Ecosystem

This technological revolution triggered by silver is profoundly impacting players at every stage of the industry chain.

Photovoltaic manufacturers face a difficult choice: "maintain efficiency" or "reduce costs." Should they immediately adopt the slightly less powerful but cheaper silver-plated copper paste, or wait for a superior but still immature electroplating copper technology? This decision is a matter of life and death in the competition.

Silver paste companies are caught in the middle, facing a difficult situation. They typically adopt a "sales-driven procurement" model, with their own gross margins... Despite low interest rates, companies face the double squeeze of volatile silver prices and lengthy payment terms from downstream customers.

Intense market competition has even forced some international giants to exit the market. For example, Heraeus of Germany announced the sale of its photovoltaic silver paste business in China and Singapore at the end of 2024, reflecting the harsh reality of shrinking profit margins in the industry.

Meanwhile, domestic silver paste companies such as Dike Technology saw their net profit decline by 70.03% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with gross profit margin falling to 7.86%. Another industry leader, Juhe Materials, also faced pressure, with its 2025 interim report showing a 39.58% year-on-year decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders. High accounts receivable... Payment and cash flow pressures hang like a Damocles' sword over these companies.

Meanwhile, equipment and materials suppliers see new market opportunities. The huge market spurred by new copper plating pastes is projected to exceed 15 billion yuan by 2030. Whether it's specialized equipment for copper electroplating or special additives and copper coating powders for copper pastes, all of these have opened up entirely new avenues for forward-thinking companies.

Future Landscape: Which Technology Routes Will Prevail?

In this "silver-plating race," the time windows and commercial prospects of different technology routes have become the focus of industry attention.

From the current perspective, silver-plated copper technology, with its mature process and significant cost reduction effect,... It has become the preferred transition solution for most companies. The penetration rate of silver-plated copper paste in N-type batteries is expected to increase rapidly within the next two years.

While copper electroplating technology has broad prospects, its large-scale commercialization may take longer due to equipment investment and process complexity. Industry experts predict that copper electroplating technology is expected to achieve mass production in 2026-2027.

Pure copper/high copper paste, if it can overcome the bottleneck of anti-oxidation technology, is likely to become a dark horse in the silver reduction race.

Industry analysts generally believe that the current choice of technology route is a game of performance, cost, and industrialization speed. With silver prices continuing to rise... Driven by rising costs, the technology iteration cycle, which previously took three to five years, is being compressed into one or two years. The elimination of silver reliance has become a crucial test for photovoltaic (PV) companies.

The silver crisis is reshaping the competitive landscape of the PV manufacturing industry. Those companies that can quickly embrace change and master new paste technologies or processes will gain a favorable position in the next round of industry reshuffling.

For the PV industry, the silver issue is both an imminent cost crisis and an opportunity for innovation that drives accelerated technological iteration. The ultimate winners of this "silver reduction revolution" are likely to be those companies that can first break free from the "silver shackles" and stand out in the price-performance competition.